EPA expected to temporarily ease auto emissions standards but keep strict limits

Washington — The Biden administration this week is expected to announce new automobile emissions standards that are in-line with a less aggressive limit than the preferred originally proposed by the Environmental Protection Agency last year, marking a win for automakers.

The final rules are expected to be closer to one of the less aggressive alternative proposals for model years 2027 through 2029, but eventually reach the same strict standards in 2032.

The changes come as sales of zero-tailpipe emissions electric vehicles that are needed to meet the standards have slowed in growth, prompting objections in the auto industry to the EPA's preferred standards unveiled last April. As a result, the Biden administration's proposed regulations — called the "strongest ever" at the time — have become a punching bag for expected Republican nominee Donald Trump on the presidential campaign trail.

Three people with knowledge of the standards told the Associated Press the Biden EPA will pick an alternative that slows implementation from 2027 through 2029, but ramps up to reach the level the EPA preferred from 2030 to 2032. The alternative will have other modifications that help the auto industry meet the standards, including the calculation of how EV fuel economy is measured, one of the people said.

The people, two from the auto industry and one from the government, didn’t want to be identified because the new standards haven’t been made public by the EPA.

The changes appear aimed at addressing strong industry opposition to the accelerated ramp-up of EVs, since noncompliance can result in hefty fees. There also is public reluctance to embrace the new technology because of limited access to charging stations, charging speeds slower than the time it takes to fill a gasoline tank, and grid reliability concerns.

The rules also could face legal challenges. The Supreme Court, with a 6-3 conservative majority, increasingly has reined in the powers of federal agencies, including the EPA, in recent years. The justices have restricted the EPA’s authority to fight air and water pollution — including a landmark 2022 ruling that limited the EPA’s authority to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from power plants.

Representatives for General Motors Co. and Stellantis NV on Tuesday declined to comment on the expectations for the final rules. A Ford Motor Co. spokesperson didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. Industry trade groups, however, have called for moderation in the regulations.

The rumored changes would provide some short-term relief to automakers for a couple of years, depending on how EV sales progress, said Sam Abuelsamid, principal e-mobility analyst for Guidehouse Inc. The market research firm projects EVs will represent 42% of the U.S. new-sales market in 2030.

"The new targets will probably be closer to our forecast than the original target," Abuelsamid said in an email. "However, from 2030 onward, the ramp rate of EV market share must grow even faster than the original proposal in order to hit the same endpoint which potentially means even more pressure on automakers in that time frame."

To do that, over the next five years, the industry needs to show improvements in its ability to offer affordable EVs profitably, and there must be significant progress in growing charging networks and improving their reliability.

The relaxed rules could provide that runway for those advances, said Sudipta Ghosh, a partner and managing director in the automotive and industrial practice at consulting firm AlixPartners LLP.

“Definitely the R&D on batteries is an important thing to bring the cost down for EVs," Ghosh said about how automakers should use initial years with less stringent standards, "so that it becomes more complementary to ICE. All OEMs are in pursuit of that.”

That greater time for automakers to firm up their transition plans also could result in less disruption in the supply chain, he added.

Meanwhile, he said, consumers are looking at what transportation options mean for their pocketbooks. Advances in affordable EVs and access to incentives will matter for that.

President Joe Biden has made fighting climate change a hallmark of his presidency and is seeking to slash carbon dioxide emissions from gasoline-powered vehicles, which make up the largest single source of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.

At the same time, Biden needs cooperation from the auto industry and political support from autoworkers, a key voting bloc. The United Auto Workers union, which has endorsed Biden, has said it favors the transition to electric vehicles but wants to make sure jobs are preserved and that the industry pays top wages to workers who build the EVs and batteries.

"Emissions regulations," the UAW wrote in its public comments to the EPA in July, "must be structured to promote new technology while maintaining a strong domestic manufacturing base that creates quality jobs for current and future autoworkers. As a leader in the transition to a greener auto industry that benefits workers and the environment, we are concerned that the EPA’s proposed standards adopt an unrealistic projection of (zero-emission vehicle) adoption that will present several barriers to OEM compliance, particularly regarding factors that are outside the control of manufacturers themselves."

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Tuesday that White House officials “don’t have any concerns” about the EPA rule, which could be announced as soon as Wednesday.

“We know, with these types of things, it takes time,'' she told reporters on Air Force One as Biden traveled to Nevada. "But we’re still going to stay committed to our (climate) goals.”

Meanwhile, Trump has criticized the proposed regulations as an EV "mandate." The rules don't require customers to buy EVs, and EPA Administrator Michael Regan has said the new rule is a performance standard that leaves it to industry to come up with solutions. The initial EPA proposal, though, suggests EVs could need to make up 67% of all new vehicle sales by 2032 to meet the new standards.

At a Detroit-area rally in September, Trump insisted Biden’s embrace of EVs — a key component of his clean-energy agenda — would ultimately lead to lost jobs.

“He’s selling you out to China," Trump told the crowd. "He’s selling you out to the environmental extremists and the radical left."

Generally, environmental groups have been optimistic about the new EPA plan.

Manish Bapna, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council, told reporters last week that he expects the rule will significantly cut carbon emissions from cars and light-duty trucks, which are the source of one-fifth of the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions.

“Based on what we hear, there’s no reason to doubt that the climate rules for cars and light-duty trucks are going to cut well over 90% of the carbon pollution from new cars, SUVs and pickup trucks’’ over the next few decades, Bapna said. “That’s huge.″

Between 2027 and 2055, the EPA rule “will prevent more than 70 billion tons of climate wrecking carbon emissions. That’s more than the nation generates in a year. It’s absolutely essential, real, concrete progress,’’ Bapna said.

“EPA’s clean car standards will put the pedal to the metal as the U.S. races to achieve cleaner, healthier air for everyone,” said Amanda Leland, executive director of Environmental Defense Fund, another environmental group.

Tailpipes release particle pollution and smog that can contribute to respiratory and other health issues and are one of the largest sources of climate pollution in the nation, Leland said: “Strong clean car standards help provide cleaner air and a safer climate, thousands of dollars in cost savings for our families and hundreds of thousands of new jobs in U.S. manufacturing.″

Luke Tonachel, an automobile expert with the Natural Resources Defense Council, said the new clean-car standards will encourage the auto industry to “continue investing, as it’s already starting to do, over the long-term period″ in EV and zero-emission vehicles. The rule also will send a signal to infrastructure providers and utilities to keep building out the charging infrastructure,’’ he said.

But Dan Becker at the Center for Biological Diversity, said he fears loopholes will let the industry continue to sell gas burners. He also is afraid the industry will get off with doing little during the first three years of the standards, which could be undone if Trump is elected president.

“The bottom line is that the administration is caving to pressure from big oil, big auto and the dealers to stall progress on EVs and now allow more pollution from cars,” Becker said.

U.S. EV sales grew 47% last year to a record 1.19 million as EV market share rose from 5.8% in 2022 to 7.6%. But EV sales growth slowed toward the end of the year. In December, they rose 34%.

The Alliance for Auto Innovation, a large industry trade group, said in a news release that the ramp-up to 67% initially proposed by the EPA is too fast for the industry to achieve. The EPA's pace of EV adoption is faster than Biden's goal of EVs being half of U.S. new vehicle sales by 2030, the group said.

“Where we are (or aren’t) in 2032 is unclear at this point,” the group said. “But moderating the pace of EV adoption in 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030 would be the right call because it prioritizes more reasonable and achievable electrification targets in the next few (very critical) years.”

The EPA's preferred standards take allowable carbon dioxide emissions from 152 grams per mile in 2026 to 73 in 2032, a 52% reduction. The limits would reach 99 grams per mile by 2029.

But under the alternative that environmental groups expect the EPA to adopt, the standards would be eased in the first three years, reaching 112 grams by 2029, though still hitting 73 in 2032.

Detroit News Staff Writer Breana Noble and AP reporters Tom Krisher and Seung Min Kim contributed to this report.