Handicapping the 2024 Rock & Roll Hall of Fame nominees

It must be catch-up year at the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame. Because not one of the 15 nominees announced on Saturday is in their first year of eligibility.

An artist is eligible 25 years after the release of their first record.

Ten artists — including the long-overlooked Cher, Mariah Carey, Sade, Peter Frampton and Sinéad O'Connor — are on the ballot for the first time. Other newcomers to the finals are Kool & the Gang, Ozzy Osbourne, Foreigner, Oasis and Lenny Kravitz.

Each of these artists has been eligible for years but never recognized by the Rock Hall's nominating committee.

A Tribe Called Quest is nominated for a third time, and Mary J. Blige, Dave Matthews Band, Eric B. & Rakim, and Jane's Addiction are finalists for a second time.

Among the artists eligible for the first time in 2024 were John Mayer and Lil Wayne.

Historically, some artists who waited years to get nominated — including Neil Diamond, Kiss and George Michael — were elected in their first time on the ballot.

The inductees will be determined by about 1,000 people in the music industry, including previous Rock Hall inductees, executives, historians and critics. I am a longtime voter.

We get to vote for up to five finalists; there are no write-ins. There is no longer ranked voting, a policy abandoned a few years back. The public can register its opinions at rockhall.com but the impact of their vote is limited.

Here is a first-blush assessment of this year's slate of nominees:

—A Tribe Called Quest (third nomination). Pioneers of alternative hip-hop in the '90s, this Queens crew was jazzy, artful and intelligent. One of hip-hop's most widely respected groups. Deserving? Yes. Chance: 60%

—Mary J. Blige (second). The queen of hip-hop soul who has asserted her power vocally and spiritually for decades. Deserving? Yes. Chance 70%

—Mariah Carey (first). She scores a perfect 10 when it comes to vocal gymnastics. She's sent 16 songs to No. 1 in the '90s alone. But the Rock Hall pooh-bahs never thought she was hip enough to nominate previously. Deserving? Yes. Chance: 75%

—Cher (first). An original, durable, versatile entertainer who is perhaps viewed more as a celebrity than an essential music-maker. Believe in this maverick's talents as a singer and performer. Deserving? Absolutely. Chance: 85%

—Dave Matthews Band (second). The kingpins of jam bands, which is not every rocker's favorite style. Deserving? Maybe. Chance: 65%

—Eric B. & Rakim (second). Considered one of the greatest hip-hop duos of all time, the Long Island pair innovated in the late '80s with sampling of R&B records and writing lyrics with internal rhyme. Deserving? Maybe. Chance: 50%

—Foreigner (first). In the 1970s/80s heyday of album-rock radio, they scored a string of hits, but they couldn't stay together as lead singer Lou Gramm went on his own and guitarist Mick Jones continued the brand. Deserving? No. Chance: 33%.

—Peter Frampton (first). He made a landmark live album in 1976, popularized the talk-box and proved to be an estimable guitarist, hired by David Bowie and others. Deserving? Maybe. Chance: 60%

—Jane's Addiction (second). Last year, voters rejected Soundgarden, the heaviest of grunge bands, because some pundits felt Jane's Addiction should be recognized first for its quirky alt-rock. Deserving? Maybe. Chance: 55%

—Kool & the Gang (first). Founded 60 years ago, this jazzy Jersey R&B party band provided a funky good time in the '70s and '80s and gave us an anthem, "Celebration," that the band and world still plays today. Deserving? Yes. Chance: 55%

—Lenny Kravitz (first). One of the most derivative hit-makers in modern rock, he has worn his Prince, Paul McCartney, Jimi Hendrix and whoever influences on his muscular arms. Deserving? No. Chance: 25%.

—Oasis (first). Speaking of derivative, the Beatles-loving Gallagher brothers found their own sound and audience but not brotherly love. Deserving? Maybe. Chance: 55%

—Sinéad O'Connor (first). With her death fresh in people's mind, history is reassessing her contributions. Not overly prolific, she was a fearless, purposeful artist who gave mesmerizing performances. Deserving? Yes. Chance: 70%

—Ozzy Osbourne (first). Already a Hall of Famer for Black Sabbath, the crazy rocker became more famous as a personality than for his solo work. Props, though, for starting Ozzfest. Deserving? No. Chance: 50%

—Sade (first). The less-than-prolific, press-shy queen of quiet storm practically invented a radio format with her jazzy soul balladry and delivered satisfyingly sexy concerts, as well. Deserving? Yes. Chance: 80%