How abortion could affect Michigan swing races for U.S. House this fall

The possibility the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade this summer has catapulted abortion to rank among the top issues in battleground races for the U.S. House in Michigan, and the contrasts between candidates couldn't be starker. 

Michigan Democratic candidates running for Congress in four likely swing districts favor codifying in federal law Roe's nearly 50-year-old legal right to abortion, while Republicans largely want to see the decision struck down and the issue returned to the states.

If Roe is overturned, as suggested by a draft opinion leaked this month, Michigan would revert to a state law dating to 1846 that broadly bans abortion as a felony, with no exceptions for cases of rape or incest.

More: A law from 1840s could soon guide abortion policy in Michigan

The major GOP candidates for U.S. House in Michigan said they do not support exceptions for abortion in cases of rape or incest.  

Supporters of abortion rights and Democratic activists are widely predicting that the fall of Roe will galvanize their base and help pro-choice candidates at the polls.

But abortion opponents and Republicans said their side would also be motivated by such a ruling. They also see soaring inflation, crime and gas prices factoring into voters' decisions.

"Pro-lifers in Michigan are definitely going to be energized if Roe v. Wade is overturned," said Anna Visser, director of communications and education for Right to Life of Michigan.

"Especially because we do have some seats where it would be really important that we got pro-life candidates in them to make sure that our 1931 abortion law is protected."

Beyond whatever the high court does, a ballot petition effort seeking to enshrine the right to abortion in Michigan’s constitution could put the issue squarely before voters this fall.

A January poll found two-thirds of Michigan's likely general election voters want Roe v. Wade left in place, according to the Detroit News-WDIV survey. The poll of 600 likely voters by the Glengariff Group had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percentage points. 

A key bloc in competitive Michigan races is likely to be independent voters, 71% of whom want to see Roe upheld, according to the survey. But it's not yet clear whether the abortion issue will be more important to independents than inflation, which so far has been the "overriding" issue, Glengariff pollster Richard Czuba said.

"In this laundry list of issues that independents use to make a decision about who they're going to support, this is now going to be part of that list in a pretty prominent way," Czuba said of abortion. 

"Will it trump inflation? We don't know yet. I suspect it will not. But it will factor in, and when you look at some of the races in Michigan, I think you're going to have some pretty clear alternatives on this issue."

7th District 

Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Holly is running for a third term in the new 7th District anchored by Lansing, where she's likely to face state Sen. Tom Barrett, a Charlotte Republican. Slotkin said it's hard to see a reversal of Roe v. Wade as "anything other than going backwards." 

"I think this is a very, very sensitive issue for lots of people, but that most believe there should be circumstances in which, if a woman needs to — to save her life, if she's raped, a victim of incest — that she should be able to have that conversation with her provider privately and not have the government in the room," said Slotkin, who flipped a GOP district in 2018.

She said her views on abortion are represented by her vote last fall for the Women's Health Protection Act that would enshrine a right to an abortion in federal law. The bill would codify health care providers' right to offer abortion services "prior to fetal viability" (around 24 weeks) without state restrictions that impede access to such services.

She called Barrett an "extremist" because he doesn't support exceptions for rape or incest, and for legislation he introduced to ban second-trimester abortions (dilation and evacuation procedures) as a felony carrying a two-year prison term for providers in Michigan, also with no exceptions for rape or incest.

"He spends a lot of time bragging about personal freedom and yet is quick to turn around and happily take away the personal freedoms of other people," she said.

Barrett said it's long been his position that Roe was decided incorrectly. If it's struck down, he favors returning the issue to the states over federal legislation to restrict abortion, though he'd review such a bill, he said.

"I've had a long legislative record of being a pro-life candidate, a pro-life legislator — elected and reelected on that position," said Barrett, noting his legislation that passed the state Senate in 2019.

"I've been what I consider to be a leader on this issue, and I'm not going to shy away from it because I know I'm right. And I take it very seriously."

Barrett claimed that Slotkin is in favor of abortion "up to the moment of birth," but she said the Women's Health Protection Act would only allow abortion after fetal viability when "in the good-faith medical judgment" of the treating health care provider, continuing the pregnancy would risk the mother's life or health. 

Barrett confirmed he doesn't favor exceptions in cases of rape or incest but said in an interview that preserving the life of the mother is important: "I consider pro-life to be pro-life for the mother, as well."

"Rape is a terrible, terrible offense. No one is defending that," Barrett said. "This is simply a fundamental recognition that human life is worth protecting, especially the most vulnerable." 

10th District 

The open seat in the new 10th District centered on Macomb County features a five-way Democratic primary and businessman John James, the likely GOP nominee.

James was not available for an interview, but he has said he'd like to see Roe overturned and compared abortion to "genocide" during his 2018 U.S. Senate campaign, according to MLive. He does not support exceptions for rape and incest, spokeswoman Abby Mitch said.

"I will always vote to protect the life of the mother and her child, before and after birth," James said in a video posted to social media last week. 

"My agenda is giving women more and better options in life and death by helping to end sexual violence, by providing educational opportunities, quality women's health resources, improving childcare and parental leave, making it easier to adopt American children," James said.

"And heck, you know what? Since 100% of pregnancies are caused by men anyway, maybe we do a little bit more research into male birth control."

The Democrats in the 10th said they support codifying the protections in Roe, which guaranteed the right to an abortion until 22 to 24 weeks of pregnancy. All but Sterling Heights City Councilman Henry Yanez would have voted for the Women's Health Protection Act. Yanez had not yet reviewed the bill, he said. 

"I don't think John James should have an opinion about this at all because he's not a woman. It's a woman's right," said Democrat Rhonda Powell of Mount Clemens, former director of Macomb County Health and Community Services. 

Powell said she's worried about the economic ramifications for women in a post-Roe world. She knows someone who had a "back-alley" abortion when they were younger and who then couldn’t have children. "These decisions have real health implications," she said. 

Warren City Councilwoman Angela Rogensues at age 41 is the youngest in the Democratic field and said she's made the decision not to have children. 

"For me, it's a very personal issue," she said. "To think that the younger generations will not be in the same position (to choose) is terrifying."

Attorney Huwaida Arraf views reproductive rights as a matter of human rights. She grew up Catholic in a conservative household. "It's not that I want to see a lot of abortions. Nobody does," she said. "But this is not the way to decrease abortions."

Policymakers should focus on providing comprehensive health care and doing more to lift families out of poverty, like living wages and the child tax credit, she said.

Yanez, a former state lawmaker, reported that the abortion/Roe issue "rarely" comes up on the campaign trail. He hears more about the economy. 

"I can't think of anybody who would probably say, I was going to vote Republican but now because of this, I'm gonna vote Democrat," he said of abortion rights. "I just don't see that."

But Carl Marlinga, a former prosecutor and judge in Sterling Heights, expects it will be a key issue. He suggested that medical records could be part of a subpoena or grand jury investigation if Michigan reverts to its abortion statute, calling the matter an "emotional" invasion of privacy. 

"I just don't think that people who are around today know how awful the situation was for women in those pre-Roe days in terms of the grief, the anxiety, the travels, the shame, the possibility of criminal prosecution," said Marlinga, 75. "It's just hard to put yourself back to that era. Suddenly, it's upon us."

The Detroit Metro Times last week unearthed a 2012 questionnaire by Right to Life-Lifespan that Marlinga filled out when running for judge, saying conservative Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas most closely aligned with his judicial philosophy. That raised questions because Thomas signed onto the draft opinion that would overturn Roe.

Marlinga said he has "always been pro-choice" but selected Scalia and Thomas because, like them, he's a strict constructionist in terms of a "plain reading" of contracts, statutes and the Constitution. A plain reading of the Fourth Amendment protects the right of people to be secure in their "persons," which includes a woman's right to control her reproductive choices, he said.  

"I regard the Fourth Amendment as the only authority that you need for a pro-choice position, which is my position," Marlinga said. 

3rd District

Freshman U.S. Rep. Peter Meijer, R-Grand Rapids Township, is running for a second term in the new 3rd District, which covers the Grand Rapids, Grand Haven and Muskegon areas. 

Meijer supports overturning Roe, which he called "poorly reasoned," saying the issue should be debated by elected representatives. "It's important that we have decisions at the federal Supreme Court level that hew more closely to the Constitution and don't just sort of invent unenumerated rights out of whole cloth."

If Roe falls, Meijer said he does see a need for federal legislation to ban or restrict abortion, but he expects in the short-term the conversation will focus on the state level because President Joe Biden would likely veto such a bill.

Meijer voted no on the Women's Health Protection Act and criticized it as going "so far and beyond" what was in Roe that not even all Senate Democrats voted for it this month (West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin was a no).

Meijer opposes exceptions for rape or incest, stressing such cases represent about 1% of abortions, but he does support exceptions for the mother's life, he said.

Meijer challenger John Gibbs, who is endorsed by former President Donald Trump, opposes rape and incest exceptions, saying a child doesn't deserve to be punished for what happened."

"There are many great Americans all around the country who were actually conceived from rape, and they're doing great things," Gibbs said.

Gibbs claimed it's rare that a mother's life can't be saved without an abortion and said laws should be carefully written to ensure such situations don't serve as a "workaround" that would promote abortion.  

"It's definitely not true that the only solution in this case is abortion," Gibbs said.

Gibbs dismissed the idea that women post-Roe might be at risk for unsafe procedures, calling it a scare tactic. "We have much better technology these days to save people and meet needs," he said.

Democrat Hillary Scholten, a Grand Rapids attorney, supports codifying Roe and said she would have voted for the Women's Health Protection Act. 

She thinks Republicans are misreading the west Michigan electorate when they say abortion won't be a factor because it's not a "kitchen table" issue. She recounted the story of a man at her church in his 80s who confided that, while he doesn't like abortion, he doesn't think it should be illegal.  

"I just thought, oh my goodness, how far we've come in west Michigan, where people really grasp what is at stake here," Scholten said. 

"This is a choice for women to make in conjunction with their families, their doctor, their own religious preferences and not for unattached politicians to be making in Washington or Lansing."

8th District 

Democratic U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee is running for reelection in the new 8th District that covers the Tri-Cities of Midland, Saginaw and Bay City, as well as Genesee County, where Kildee's hometown of Flint Township is located. 

Kildee, like Slotkin, voted for the Women's Health Protection Act last fall. He wasn't available for an interview but provided a statement saying he's "consistently voted to protect a woman’s right to choose and control her own body and future."

"Health care decisions should be made between a woman and her doctor, not politicians or judges," Kildee said. "If Roe v. Wade is overturned, abortion would become illegal and a felony under Michigan state law, even in cases of rape and incest. Every Michigander must speak up against this attempt by conservative justices and MAGA Republicans to roll back the rights of women and families."

Three Republicans filed for the GOP primary, but The Detroit News could reach only Paul Junge, who was endorsed by Right to Life of Michigan when he ran against Slotkin in 2020. 

Junge said he does not support exceptions for rape or incest but "there's always an exception for the life of the mother," he said. If Roe is struck down, he favors leaving the issue to states rather than enacting federal restrictions on abortion, he said. 

But abortion is not what he's hearing about from voters, Junge said. Rather it's rising gas prices, the lack of baby formula in stores and a host of other supply chain issues, he said.

mburke@detroitnews.com