GOP race for governor in turmoil: 'We don't know where this is going'

Lansing — The Republican race to be Michigan's next governor veered Tuesday toward an unexpected reset a day after the Bureau of Elections found that five of the 10 GOP candidates failed to submit enough valid petition signatures to get their names on the ballot.

Longtime political observers in the battleground state said the looming disqualifications of former Detroit police Chief James Craig and self-funding businessman Perry Johnson of Bloomfield Hills would provide other contenders a wider path to the nomination and boost the influence of former President Donald Trump.

But the time window for the candidates to make their move is short with a month to go before absentee ballots for the Aug. 2 primary are made widely available to voters, consultants said.

"These candidates that have made it through have been on the second tier because you had more well-funded or more well-known candidates," said Bill Nowling, a former long-time Republican consultant.

The remaining candidates, "if they're smart," will treat the next few weeks as if it were the last few days ahead of the primary election in an effort to win over absentee voters, Nowling said.

Richard Czuba, the founder of the Glengariff Group, said one of the key questions will be which candidate can fill the void left by Craig in southeast Michigan, where the former chief was dominating in early polling. Craig was viewed by some as the early frontrunner for the GOP nomination, and Johnson had spent the most money on TV ads.

Czuba's firm recently polled the primary race to determine eligibility for an upcoming debate hosted by the Detroit Regional Chamber.

"This is a complete circus of a race now," Czuba said. "Nobody knows any of these candidates. We don’t know where this is going to go. We just don’t.”

On Monday evening, the Michigan Bureau of Elections released its reviews of candidates' petitions, finding that five of the 10 Republican candidates for governor didn't submit the required 15,000 valid signatures. In a staff report, the bureau said it had tracked 36 petition circulators "who submitted fraudulent petition sheets consisting entirely of invalid signatures."

"In total, the bureau estimates that these circulators submitted at least 68,000 invalid signatures submitted across 10 sets of nominating petitions," the report said. "In several instances, the number of invalid signatures submitted by these circulators was the reason a candidate had an insufficient number of valid signatures."

In addition to Craig and Johnson, the bureau found that Donna Brandenburg of Byron Center, Michigan State Police Capt. Michael Brown of Stevensville and financial adviser Michael Markey of Grand Haven didn't have enough signatures.

On Thursday, the Board of State Canvassers, which has two Democratic members and two Republican members, will examine the bureau's findings and vote on them. It would take three canvassers to override the bureau's recommendations.

Candidates disqualified Thursday could appeal the decision in court, but they're unlikely to succeed since state election law clearly places the onus of presenting sufficient nominating signatures on the shoulders of the candidates themselves, not the hired help, said retired election lawyer John Pirich. 

"They have the ultimate responsibility," Pirich said. 

Johnson and Craig have indicated they will fight the bureau's findings. But on Tuesday, Brown ended his campaign.

"It appears that after my campaign's signature gathering was complete, individuals independently contracted for a portion of our signature gathering and validation jumped onto other campaigns and went on a money grab," he said in a statement. "They were involved in allegedly fraudulent signature gathering activities with these campaigns causing the Michigan Bureau of Elections to declare all of the signatures connected to those individuals as invalid.

"I cannot and will not be associated with this activity."

If the bureau's recommendations remain intact, the GOP gubernatorial field would feature conservative commentator Tudor Dixon of Norton Shores, real estate broker Ryan Kelley of Allendale, businessman Kevin Rinke of Bloomfield Township, Pastor Ralph Rebandt of Farmington Hills and chiropractor Garrett Soldano of Mattawan.

"The candidates that are left speak more to the primary voter, especially, than either Johnson or Craig did," Nowling said. 

The winner of the primary will challenge Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in November.

Soldano, who gathered a grassroots following while opposing COVID restrictions during the pandemic, appears to be leading the five remaining candidates in most polling as the only one among the five "sniffing double digits," said Adrian Hemond of Grassroots Midwest.

But that polling was conducted before Dixon on Monday received the powerful endorsement and financial support of west Michigan's DeVos family.

"There’s a lot that can change here,” Hemond said.

Dixon has also been pursuing Trump's support, which multiple consultants said could help determine the ultimate winner of the primary. A crowded field of unknown candidates strengthens the former president's sway, the consultants said.

"This is Donald Trump’s nomination to lose," Czuba said.

However, any remaining candidate hoping to win over primary voters has a short period to make their case before absentee voting gets underway. Clerks must mail out requested absentee ballots for the August primary to overseas military members by June 18 and make them available to the general public by June 23.  

"There's a very, very short time for the dynamics of this race to change," Hemond said. Three to four weeks are "about as much runway you have to catch fire here."

Rinke, a businessman who once vowed to spend $10 million on his campaign, has a chance to make it through the primary, but the "time to spend money is now," said Hemond. 

"He’s polling higher than Tudor Dixon has been to date so you can’t say he’s out of it," Hemond said. "But he’s got to turn on the money spigot now, full throttle.”

Nowling agreed, comparing Monday's announcement from the Bureau of Elections to a "reset button" on the Republican gubernatorial campaigns — one that will cost cash to hit. 

"If you were waiting to spend money toward the end of the primary, I would spend it now," Nowling said. "It will be key to building name ID.”

John Truscott, CEO of the public relations firm Truscott Rossman, said Democrats might have made a strategic error by getting so many Republicans potentially kicked off the primary ballot.

Democrats had challenged the signatures of Craig and Johnson.

"I think it’s helped sharpen the field by reducing the number of people who are beating up on each other," Truscott said.

eleblanc@detroitnews.com

cmauger@detroitnews.com