'Celebrate what you can': Michigan's population finally grew this year

For the first time in several years, Michigan's population grew in 2023, according to new numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The growth wasn't massive. The state gained 3,980 people from July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023, according to the data released Tuesday. But growth at all is a positive change for Michigan, a state that has been slowly losing people over the past several years.

"You have to celebrate what you can, even when it's not that big of a win," said Kurt Metzger, a demographer and the director emeritus of Data Driven Detroit.

In total, new Census Bureau numbers indicate that Michigan has 10,037,261 people, allowing it to hold on to its status as the 10th-largest state by population. The bureau estimates the population each year on July 1, based in part on information from decennial censuses and also on state-level information on where people are living, dying and moving.

Michigan's biggest wins came from a slightly lower number of deaths — although Tuesday's estimates, which are separate from the state-level numbers that usually come out partway through the following year — indicate that they still outpaced births this year. Just shy of 102,000 people were born in Michigan in 2023, based on Census numbers, compared to just shy of 106,000 deaths.

The state also saw a slight bump in international migration, an area Michigan often struggles in. Nearly 23,000 people moved to Michigan from other countries. That number helped to offset the domestic migration to other states, which showed that Michigan lost a net of more than 15,000 people.

"The odds are that it's not all retirees moving to Texas or Arizona or Florida," Metzger said. "That's in part young, educated people who continue to move after college for other opportunities."

Michigan ranked 35th in the country for growth from 2022 to 2023. That put it ahead of states like New York, which ranked 51st in the same time period if the District of Columbia is included, and California, which ranked 50th. But it also sits behind many of its Midwestern counterparts, including North Dakota (34), Iowa (32), South Dakota (29), Nebraska (27), Wisconsin (20), Minnesota (18), Ohio (16) and Indiana (14). It beat only Illinois, which ranked 49th for growth in the same one-year time period.

Since 2020, Michigan is doing even worse compared to its fellow states. Nationally, it ranks 46th for growth from 2020 to 2023, behind only New York, California, Illinois, Louisiana and Pennsylvania. Michigan is down more than 40,000 people from where it was on Census Day in April 2020.

But, like in Michigan, national numbers show that most states have slowed in their decline. In the past year, the U.S. has grown by more than 1.6 million people, according to the Census Bureau, an increase of about 0.5%. That's up from 0.4% in 2022 and only 0.2% in 2021, although it is still what the bureau considers "historically low."

"U.S. migration returning to pre-pandemic levels and a drop in deaths are driving the nation’s growth," Kristie Wilder, a demographer in the Population Division at the Census Bureau, said in a release from the bureau. "Although births declined, this was tempered by the near 9% decrease in deaths. Ultimately, fewer deaths paired with rebounding immigration resulted in the nation experiencing its largest population gain since 2018."

If Michigan wants to keep growing, though, it's going to need to attract more people, Metzger said — particularly younger people. Younger people have children, work jobs that help support the state's retirees through taxes, and so on. Having younger residents is a critical part of consistent growth, experts agree.

That's part of why last week's report from the Growing Michigan Together Council, a task force put together by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to come up with solutions to address the state's lagging population, focuses so heavily on attracting (and retaining) young people.

Three core strategies from the council are to improve the state's education for "lifelong learning," focus on innovation and "knowledge-based jobs" and, finally, creating "thriving resilient communities that are magnets for young talent," which includes developing amenities such as public transit and housing.

"We have so much to offer Michigan residents new and old, and we love seeing more Michiganders join our ranks," Hilary Doe, Michigan's chief growth officer, said in a statement. "In order to move the needle on retaining our young folks and increasing growth over the long-term, we know it will require telling our story across the country and around the world, boosting Michigan’s economy and improving quality of life for all Michiganders."

The task force report, Doe said, "provides a roadmap to establish Michigan" as a hub of innovation and education. What comes next is continued work with leaders across the state. It remains to be see how, if at all, Michigan leaders will enact such suggestions, but experts agree it is critical that the state takes them into consideration for future growth.

"They need to figure out how to prioritize those initiatives that are going to keep people here and bring people in," Metzger said. "That means concentrating on universities. People talk about programs like internships, but we've been talking about that for 50 years."

The key, he said, will be attracting people from other states. Especially with a population as old as Michigan's, deaths are likely to stay stable. There is nothing to suggest women will start having more children. And while international immigration is valuable, immigrants overwhelming choose other states instead.

"It really comes down to domestic migration," Metzger said. "We're not going to start living to 105 or 110 or 115, not that many people really want to. But if we're going to make a difference, we need to be the kind of state that brings people here and keeps them."