Whitmer's leads over GOP rivals raising doubts about red wave, poll finds
Lansing — Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has leads over all five of her potential GOP challengers less than four months before Election Day, raising doubts about whether a Republican wave will make landfall in Michigan.
Whitmer's advantages over the Republican candidates for governor range from 9 percentage points against real estate broker Ryan Kelley of Allendale to 15 points against Pastor Ralph Rebandt of Farmington Hills, according to a new statewide survey commissioned by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV (Channel 4).
The poll of 600 likely general election voters, surveyed July 5-8 by live telephone operators, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The results showed while Michigan voters largely disapprove of Democratic President Joe Biden's performance, they view Whitmer separately. Many of the voters also aren't familiar with the Republicans seeking the state's top job.
Near majorities of poll participants hadn't heard of each of the five GOP gubernatorial hopefuls. Kelley, the most well-known Republican, gained national headlines because he was arrested in June on misdemeanor charges related to the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.
"Michigan does not appear to be showing signs of a red wave," said Richard Czuba, founder of the Lansing-based Glengariff Group, which conducted the survey. "In fact, it shows signs of keeping its incumbents in office."
Democrats are hoping to reelect Whitmer, Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson on Nov. 8.
They also contend that if Whitmer wins by a large margin, they could take control of the state Legislature, where Republicans currently hold majorities in both the House and Senate.
Czuba said the new survey's numbers look "remarkably consistent" with those that occurred ahead of the 2018 election, which Whitmer won by 9 percentage points over Republican Bill Schuette, who was the attorney general at the time.
How Whitmer compares
Against all five potential GOP candidates for governor, Whitmer was hovering around the 50% support threshold, according to the poll. Incumbents who get over 50% support usually get reelected.
Republican primary voters will pick the party's nominee on Aug. 2.
Whitmer was up 50%-41% over Kelley with 8% undecided, according to the poll. She was up 51%-40% over conservative commentator Tudor Dixon of Norton Shores with 8% undecided, 52%-40% over Metro Detroit businessman Kevin Rinke with 7% undecided.
The Democratic incumbent led 52%-38% over chiropractor Garrett Soldano of Mattawan with 8% undecided and 52%-37% over Rebandt with 9% undecided.
Republicans contended Tuesday that their race against Whitmer will tighten as voters get to know the party's nominee for governor. They also said frustration with Biden demonstrated a significant weakness for incumbent Democrats.
In the poll, only 11% of likely Michigan voters said they believe the nation is on the right track while 79% said it's on the wrong track. And 57% of likely Michigan voters said they disagreed with the job Biden is doing as president with 38% saying they agreed with his performance.
"These numbers continue to prove that Gretchen Whitmer, vice chair of Joe Biden's DNC (Democratic National Committee), is vulnerable this fall to Republicans," said Gustavo Portela, spokesman for the Michigan Republican Party.
"Michiganders don't believe the state is headed in the right direction under Gretchen Whitmer, and they'll have an opportunity to vote for change this fall, away from the disastrous policies of Biden/Whitmer and for real economic change that doesn't slash family budgets at the pump or in grocery stores."
Of those surveyed, 50% said Michigan was on the wrong track, and 35% said it was on the right track.
'A different year'
The poll found that many currently are differentiating between Biden and Whitmer, a fact that could point to potential problems for Michigan Republicans up and down the ballot in November.
On the governor's job performance, 55% of likely voters supported Whitmer while 40% opposed her.
Among independent voters, 32% approved of Biden's job performance, but 61% approved of Whitmer's.
Theresa Wheeler, a United Auto Workers retiree from Flint, is among the Michiganians who plans to cast a ballot for Whitmer in the fall. She credited the governor for helping to get the state through the COVID-19 pandemic.
"She's not afraid to handle the tough stuff," Wheeler said of Whitmer.
Whitmer gained the political spotlight in 2020 as she clashed with then-President Donald Trump, a Republican, and used emergency orders to try to combat coronavirus case surges in Michigan. At one point, Biden considered making Whitmer his running mate.
The governor has garnered support from Democrats nationally, having about $10 million in campaign money available to start 2022.
On Tuesday, Eric Holder, who served as former President Barack Obama's attorney general, campaigned for Whitmer and other Michigan Democrats in Ann Arbor. He said reports of a "red wave" in November had been "greatly exaggerated."
Usually, Holder acknowledged, the party that holds the White House struggles in the first midterm election after the new president takes office. However, the situation in 2022 is different, he said, given the fallout of the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol and the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe. v. Wade, which had established abortion rights nationally.
"This could be a different year," Holder said. "I think you'll see Democrats in Michigan do well simply because they've done a good job. Gretchen Whitmer has faced a whole bunch of challenges that she's handled extremely well."
Unknown Republicans
But some Michigan Republicans cautioned that it's too early to predict what will happen in November.
Karla Flanery, a nurse from Oceana County, is one of the Michigan voters planning to oppose Whitmer's reelection. Flanery said she disagreed with the governor's handling of the pandemic — specifically mentioning her decision to label some workers "essential" in the early months of 2020 — and noted that Whitmer had vowed to fix the roads.
"If you were in my area, you would wonder where the hell all of the money went," Flanery said.
Tom Shields, a longtime Michigan GOP political consultant, said until Republicans have a nominee for governor, it's too early to say where the race definitively stands.
The potential for a "red wave" is sitting there, but Republicans have to take advantage of it, said Shields, a senior adviser for the Lansing-based firm Marketing Resource Group.
"At this point, they're not," Shields said.
An example of that is the fact large portions of Michigan voters, ranging from 49% to 84%, said they had never heard of the various Republican candidates for governor, according to the new poll.
Kelley, the real estate broker and Republican activist from Ottawa County, was the most well known of the GOP candidates with 50% of participants saying they had heard of him.
Kelley was arrested in June on four misdemeanor charges because of his alleged actions during the Jan. 6, 2021, attempted insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. He has pleaded not guilty.
Majorities of voters hadn't heard of Rinke of Bloomfield Township (58%), Dixon (68%), Soldano (71%) and Rebandt of Farmington Hills (84%).
More people having heard of Kelley and his familiar last name — many Michigan candidates have run for office with the last name Kelly or Kelley in the past — likely contributed to him performing marginally better against Whitmer than other GOP contenders, pollsters said Tuesday.
People with Irish last names generally perform 4-5 percentage points better than other candidates in Michigan, Shields said.
cmauger@detroitnews.com