House Republicans to target 3 Michigan swing districts

Washington ― A national Republican campaign group announced Monday it will target three Democrat-held swing districts for U.S. House in 2024, including one that's going to be open as U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin pursues a Senate run.

The National Republican Congressional Committee said among the 37 seats it aims to flip are those held by U.S. Reps. Dan Kildee of Flint Township in the 8th District and Hillary Scholten of Grand Rapids in the 3rd District, as well as Slotkin's seat in the 7th District that's rated a tossup by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Former state Sen. Tom Barrett, R-Charlotte, has indicated he plans to run for the Lansing-based 7th District seat again after losing to Slotkin by 5 percentage points last fall, her largest margin of victory yet in her three congressional campaigns.

On the Democratic side, Lansing Mayor Andy Schor has launched an exploratory committee as he mulls a run for the 7th. Other possible contenders include Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum and former state Sen. Curtis Hertel.

The Slotkin-Barrett race last year ranked as the most expensive U.S. House contest in the country with an estimated $36.6 million spent on advertising, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Biden would have won the district in 2020 by less than a percentage point.

"Republicans are in the majority and on offense. We will grow our House majority by building strong campaigns around talented recruits in these districts ― who can communicate the dangers of Democrats' extreme agenda," NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson of North Carolina said in a statement. "These House Democrats should be shaking in their boots."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not yet released a list of its battleground for 2024, but national Democrats seem to be eying Michigan's 10th District as a potential pickup opportunity. That's where freshman U.S. Rep. John James of Farmington Hills won his seat last fall by just 1,600 votes, half a percentage point, against former Macomb County judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga of Sterling Heights.

Both the DCCC and an affiliate of the leadership-aligned House Majority PAC have gone after James in recent weeks on his anti-abortion stance and other votes. James, a rising star in the GOP, recently ruled out a run for Senate in Michigan.

Based on the 2020 election results, former President Donald Trump would have won the 10th District by 1 percentage point. But Democratic U.S. Sen. Gary Peters of Bloomfield Township also would have narrowly won it over James that same year by less than a point.

The DCCC on Friday added Kildee and Scholten to its list of 29 vulnerable "frontline" incumbents for the next cycle. These members would usually get extra fundraising and organizational help from the party organization, especially as Democrats seek to retake House majority next year.

Both Kildee and Scholten's seats are rated "likely" Democratic by Cook Political Report for 2024. Kildee defeated GOP challenger Paul Junge, a former news anchor and Trump administration official, by 10 percentage points in a district covering Flint and the Tri-Cities. Scholten, a former immigration lawyer, defeated the Trump-endorsed John Gibbs of Byron Center by 13 points in the new 3rd District centered around Grand Rapids.

Both were competitive contests that saw significant spending by the national parties and other outside groups.

How Democrats won in Michigan's most competitive U.S. House races

"House Democrats are well positioned to take back the House in 2024, thanks in large part to our tremendous slate of Democrat incumbents who tirelessly advocate for their communities and continue to put People over Politics,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said in a statement.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has not yet announced its Patriot Program for vulnerable Republican incumbents. 

mburke@detroitnews.com