Finley: Haley has a path to beating Trump

Nikki Haley doesn't have to win Tuesday's New Hampshire primary to remain a viable candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. And she likely won't.

Haley enters the Granite State balloting 17.5 percentage points behind former President Donald Trump.

Even if she captures all of the 7.5% of the vote Florida Gov. Ron Desantis left on the table with his sudden weekend departure from the race, she'd still fall short of Trump, who is tracking just above 54% in New Hampshire in the Real Clear Politics polling average after taking 51% of the Iowa caucuses last week.

Win or lose, Haley should look at this as the start of her campaign, not the end. Now that it's finally the two-candidate race many Republicans had sought from the beginning, the former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador can refocus her aim directly at Trump.

In the months-long lead-up to the primary voting, Trump strutted on the sidelines while Haley, DeSantis and the various other Republicans who were never going to be president tore each other up in debates that had an undercard feel.

With Trump as her only opponent, Haley must give herself the opportunity to draw a sharp contrast between her vision, character, leadership skills and ability to unite the nation with his.

She should start by issuing an everyday challenge to Trump to meet her on a debate stage. He'll refuse, of course. But if she keeps calling out his cowardice, his enormous ego may kick in.

Republicans haven't asked much of Trump, but they should at least expect him to make a minimal nod to campaign norms, particularly for a guy who's accused President Joe Biden of campaigning from his basement. If he thinks Haley is such a lightweight, he shouldn't be afraid to face her.

Realistically, though, Haley's path to the nomination doesn't run exclusively through Republican voters.

She'll for sure need the one-third of Republicans who are never-Trumpers. And she has to flip Trump supporters who are worried about his legal troubles. In The Detroit News/WDIV poll earlier this month, 12% of Trump supporters said they would be less likely to vote for him if he's convicted of a crime, and another 11% said they weren't sure.

That's a sizeable pool to work with. But not enough to prevail.

Haley will need independents, as well as cross-over Democrats, to vote in upcoming Republican primaries. She's likely to get a boost from them in New Hampshire, where Biden chose not to put his name on the ballot, and it should help her in upcoming primaries as well.

Democrats are motivated this cycle by keeping Trump from returning to the White House, not necessarily by reelecting Biden. The surest way to accomplish that is to help deny him the Republican nomination.

GOP officials, even those who once publicly opposed Trump, are lining up to kiss his ring. That includes DeSantis, who took the loyalty oath before slithering back to the swamps. They excuse their spinelessness by saying they can't abide another four years of Biden.

Let's take another look at the polls. A YouGov survey two weeks ago had Trump beating Biden in the general election by two percentage points, within the margin of error and matching the RCP average. In the same poll, Haley leads Biden by eight percentage points.

Republicans have badly underperformed in every election cycle since Trump's election in 2016. They'll do so again this year if he leads their ticket.

After New Hampshire, there are still 48 states left to vote. It's too early to coronate Trump. He's a deeply flawed candidate unacceptable to a broad swath of the electorate and will become especially if juries begin returning guilty verdicts.

Haley and her backers must commit to the longhaul. She's the best hope for saving the Republican Party and the nation.

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