Lions mailbag: Jared Goff extension, coordinator replacements, Buccaneers talk and more

The Detroit Lions have won a division and a playoff game. It's a wild time to be alive. It's also a good time to check the mailbox for the first time in months.

▶ Question: Jared Goff won the division and now a playoff game. Regardless of what happens from here on out, what do you think his contract extension looks like? — @Joe_81122

▶ Answer: I'm planning on dipping into the analysis of this further during the offseason, but my previous answer had been the four-year, $160 million pact signed by Daniel Jones was the floor. That was then. The combination of continued individual and team success, paired with the ever-rising cap, probably likely puts Goff in the $45 million per range.

It will be interesting to see how much Deshaun Watson's absurd deal, with $230 million guaranteed, impacts the discussions. At some level, you hope reason prevails, but the Browns really threw a wrench into the process for everyone, not just the Lions, with their short-sighted decision-making.

▶ Q: How do Tampa Bay's receivers compare to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp? — @sweta2311

▶ A: They're all absolute studs, but Mikes Evans and Chris Godwin possess more impressive physical attributes. The 6-foot-5, 231-pound Evans' size stands out from that group and is part of what makes him such a difficult option to handle downfield and in the red zone. He finished tied for the league lead with 13 touchdown receptions.

As for Godwin, he's the fastest of the four, running a 4.42 coming out of college, with his play speed stacking up to his track speed. Kupp might be a little more precise with his routes, but both find ways to get open quickly, while doing a healthy percentage of their damage from the slot.

Another big difference is their schemes. The Rams successful create mismatches and confusion through motion. The Bucs use motion, too, but not the same way and certainly not the same rate.

Another reader asked me what scares me the most about this matchup. Without a doubt, it's Detroit's ability to slow down both of Tampa Bay's receivers. Quarterback Baker Mayfield isn't efficient with the deep ball, but he'll test a secondary more than almost anyone. If the Lions allow a handful of those connections, it will be problematic.

More: Detroit Lions film review: Why have star receivers been feasting on team's secondary?

▶ Q: Is Scottie Montgomery the leader in the clubhouse for offensive coordinator next year? — @ronjivkroy

▶ A: There's understandably a lot of interest in potential replacements for both coordinators, especially Ben Johnson, who seems like a lock to take a head job. I admittedly haven't invested the time I would like exploring the possibilities, simply because the playoff run is consuming all my working hours, but I can speak to the internal options, having been around them all year.

And yes, of that group, I think Montgomery is far and away the most likely to replace Johnson if he leaves. The assistant head coach has a lot working in his favor, from his experience to his coaching style to his demeanor. He is demanding, not demeaning, authoritative, but not a dictator. And I believe his commitment to run-pass balance marries well with coach Dan Campbell's view of offensive football.

I've asked Montgomery what he's gained working with Johnson this season and he praised the current OC's collaborative process, a willingness to craft a game plan by using thoughts and ideas from all the available resources on the staff. That's a valuable lesson.

Would the train stay on its tracks going from Johnson to Montgomery? I couldn't say. Johnson is clearly a special coaching mind. But I've never left a conversation with Montgomery where I wasn't more impressed by the individual than prior to the meeting. He's got a tough to describe it-factor when it comes to working with people, which carries a lot of value. The Xs and Os are a bit more cloudy, just because he hasn't done it at this level.

▶ Q: Why did the Lions offense stall so badly in the second half against the Rams and is it a concern for Tampa Bay? — @PhilipFracassi

▶ A: Let's start here: They only had four possessions, and the fourth was intent on killing the clock. On the first, they moved the ball and put up points. They settled for a field goal after moving across midfield because of an execution error, a failed blitz pickup by David Montgomery on third down.

On the next, the play-calling got a little conservative, with runs on first and second down, and subpar blocking leading to failure on both. Then, on third-and-8, Goff tripped trying to step up in a collapsing pocket. And blocking showed up as an issue on the third drive as well, as Goff faced quick pressure when throwing on first and third down resulting in incompletions.

Do you like to see back-to-back drives like that? No, obviously. But it's pretty common, honestly. I wouldn't say it's cause for concern, because overall, I thought the offensive line was excellent the rest of the game and a big part of the reason the Lions were able to open with three straight touchdown drives.

▶ Q: Will Gibbs' availability make a difference, or do the Bucs do something special that stops the Lions rush offense? — @EricLloyd

▶ A: They don't have to do anything special; that's a very good run defense as is, allowing 95.3 yards per game and 3.8 yards per season. But make no mistake about it, the Lions' game plan figures to be much different, not only because of the presence of Gibbs, but also a healthy David Montgomery, who was forced from the previous matchup early.

▶ Q: When the defense dialed up the pressure vs the Rams, who, personnel-wise, was bringing heat? — @Pspice07

▶ A: A lot of it was the linebackers. Alex Anzalone was on the pass rush nine times, Derrick Barnes five and Jack Campbell four. The defensive backs were less involved in the matchup, although dynamic nickel Brian Branch was sent on four occasions. The ultra-productive Ifeatu Melifonwu was less usage as a blitzer in this one, getting sent after the QB just twice.

The Rams were excellent picking up the pressure much of the day, allowing Stafford to complete 11-of-15 when blitzed for 165 yards and a touchdown.

▶ Q: Will Jameson Williams ever be featured in this offense? — @dividedwiistand

▶ A: As long as Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are part of the roster, Williams is unlikely to be the featured piece in a given week. But with his big-play ability, we're probably not far from a time where he'll finish a game as Detroit's most productive receiver.

It's important to acknowledge Williams' remarkable growth the second half of this season. He's taken massive steps forward with being assignment sound and demonstrating reliable hands. That's earned him games where he saw six and seven targets down the stretch. Is that featured? No, but it's a significant role in a top-five offense.

▶ Q: What are the chances our pass rush makes Mayfield uncomfortable this game? It seems kind of hit or miss on if we get to the QB — @PaulFre48961807

▶ A: Decent. Tampa Bay's line is middle of the pack in pass-blocking efficiency and have actually been a little shakier than that the last six games. Meanwhile, Mayfield has never had the quickest trigger. His 45.5% rate of getting rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds ranks 15th among qualifying passers.

I think we can comfortably count on Aidan Hutchinson bringing some heat. It's always a conversation of where else will the pressure come from with the Lions. There's a reason the Lions blitz so much and you have to hope that gets home a little better than it did against the Rams.

▶ Q: If both Aaron Glenn or Ben Johnson move on, can they both take another staff member with them? If so, who do you think follows them? — @rmwinesalot

▶ A: A lateral move would require permission, but the Lions couldn't stop a position coach from leaving for a promotion to coordinator. With Johnson, I think he'll be intent on calling plays, so I could see him bringing Tanner Engstrand with him as a coordinator. The alternative is Johnson finding a veteran coach to help execute his vision like Jim Schwartz did with Gunther Cunningham more than a decade ago.

It's a little less clear what Glenn might do. I'd think Brian Duker and Kelvin Sheppard could both be in the mix for his defensive coordinator choice. That said, I could easily see the Lions having interest in making Sheppard Glenn's replacement, even if the young linebackers coach might still be a little green and need of continued development. The football IQ and the way he connects with players might be more than enough to overlook other concerns.

▶ Q: Coming into town for the game from Denver. This may be most controversial question to answer, but what’s the best place to get pizza on Sunday before the game? Or any other food recommendations? — @MCDCHOF

▶ A: There's a lot of ways to go with this. If you're not afraid of carbo-loading, you should try to get some Detroit-style pizza. You can't go wrong with Buddy's, an institution, even if some local alternatives have surpassed it. I do love Michigan & Trumbull.

But if you're like me, and prefer thinner pizzas, Supino's is always excellent. Jolly Pumpkin has some underrated and unique offerings. And if you want something really off the radar, HenriettaHaus in Hamtramck. It's a whole vibe.

▶ Q: What free agents do we re-sign? Josh Reynolds? C.J. Gardner-Johnson? — @DirtyJerzFinest

▶ A: Tough to say in the moment, but if I was to place early bets, Josh Reynolds, Graham Glasgow and Jalen Reeves-Maybin would top the list. Those are key pieces who offer valuable continuity and contributions, but wouldn't break the bank.

▶ Q: Where do you rank Amon-Ra St. Brown amongst Lions receivers all-time? — @RhoPrimoLeonis

▶ A: On a per-game basis, he's arguably already No. 2 behind Calvin Johnson, although I have no idea how we adjust for era to consider someone like Cloyce Box, a two-time Pro Bowler, a 1952 All-Pro when he lead the league in touchdowns and a two-time NFL champion.

When we factor in longevity, I'd still put Herman Moore, Golden Tate and maybe even Marvin Jones ahead of St. Brown. But the gap is narrowing rapidly. That answer likely changes by the end of next season with another 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns like St. Brown posted this year.

▶ Q: How many teams have had 3 home playoff games in wild card format? — @joe_in_Durham

▶ A: Just once, I believe. When there were six teams, and two getting byes, three home playoff games wasn't possible. With seven teams, it's easier, but still tricky. The 2021-22 Chiefs, as the No. 2 seed, hosted three times. They're the only ones since the format switch ahead of the 2020 season.

This year, the Lions and Bills could do it, but it would require the top seeds in their respective conferences to be upset.

jdrogers@detroitnews.com

@Justin_Rogers

Divisional round

Buccaneers at Lions

▶ Kickoff: 3 p.m., Sunday, Ford Field

▶ TV/radio: NBC/97.1

▶ Line: Lions by 6

▶ Records: Tampa Bay (10-8), Detroit (13-5)